Looking ahead to Governor Shapiro's 2026 Budget Address

Here we go again. In a few days, Governor Josh Shapiro will give his fourth budget address. It’s a long way from his first budget address in 2023. 

When he stepped up to speak to the gathered lawmakers in the Capitol rotunda during renovations to the House Chamber, he was a new governor with a promise to deliver results for Pennsylvania families.

Since he spoke, he’s been the runner-up in the Veep stakes after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 Presidential race and ceded his place to Vice President Kamala Harris. 

President Trump won and returned to the White House, reshaping the electorate in Pennsylvania and across the country. 

Governor Shapiro survived an assassination attempt. He has governed through crises and heightened political tension in Pennsylvania and nationally.

The Governor’s profile has grown, and he has become a powerful national voice in the Democratic Party. He’s maintained sky-high approval ratings and become a political force in Pennsylvania with Democrats clamoring for his endorsement and Republicans worried about his political strength. And he is coming off a well received launch of his memoir. 

There’s been contempt and congeniality between Gov. Shapiro and Republicans in the Senate. 

State Treasurer Stacey Garrity launched her own campaign for Governor in 2026, and Shapiro has built a massive warchest to retain his position. 

As far as the budget itself, Pennsylvania has made significant investments in schools and economic development in the past years. But a structural deficit looms over the progress made by the Governor and the legislature. There are still billions in unmet needs. Public education needs more funding to fulfill a state court mandate. Transit needs stable and reliable state funding. Hospitals and health care workers are strained by limited dollars and federal cuts. 

And this budget address comes as the ink is barely dry on last year’s late budget. 

Against that complicated backdrop, Governor Shapiro will deliver his budget address, hoping to cement his accomplishments as he heads into his 2026 reelection and his political future. 

Ahead of his budget address, Gov. Shapiro has stayed relatively tight-lipped about the contents of his speech and the budget. 

There have been indications that the budget will include a much-needed housing plan. There are also a number of smaller initiatives the Governor has backed over the last few years that he will likely try to build on, such as the student-teacher stipend and main street improvements. 

Senate Republicans will likely look to restrain his ambition. Last year, they took a hard line and prevented several proposals, such as sustainable funding for public transit, from crossing the finish line. They will likely remain focused on the structural deficit and push back against attempts to dip into the Rainy Day Fund while trying to figure out how to finally make school vouchers a reality. 

House Democrats will work with the governor to advance their shared priorities like making incremental progress toward adequately funding public education. Democratic leadership will look to guide their members through a budget season with little room for error as they hold a slim majority with diverse constituencies. 

Historically, election-year budgets have been less contentious. Elected officials have the motivation to wrap up the budget on time-ish and focus on their election efforts. 

But Republicans might look at the electoral playing field and bet that their best chance to win the governor’s mansion and hold the Senate is to extend the budget fight through the summer and hope voters place the blame on Governor Shapiro. 

That tactic has not worked in the past. Even with an extended budget impasse, Governor Shapiro emerged from last year’s budget fight with the same high approval ratings and few signs of slowed momentum. 

It’s also worth watching to see how Gov. Shapiro’s opponent, Treasurer Garrity, approaches the budget. 

Last year, she criticized the final product supported by some of her staunchest allies in the Senate Republican Caucus. 

She is not in an advantageous position and needs to gain some attention and traction. 

Will she attack the budget process and the results of the past few years, risking collateral damage to some of her supporters? 

She might have to, but it will not make it any easier for Senate Republicans up for election in 2026. 

Next week, we’ll see budget season kick off in Pennsylvania. Will we see a typical, staid election-year budget, or will there be some extra fireworks as the budget crosses campaigns and interconnected players, all looking toward a contentious election?